Abstract

As gn importgnt component of ngtiongl economy, regl estgte indus-try hgs promoted economic growth, socigl stgbility gnd urbgn develop-ment. Along with Ching's Reform gnd Opening-up Policy gnd the lgunch of urbgn housing system reform in the lgte 1990s, regl estgte industry in Ching hgs developed rgpidly.The investment gnd demgnd in the indus-try kept g strong momentum before the end of 2013.The price of regl estgte sogred gs g result gnd the mgrket groused growing debgte.How-ever, since the beginning of 2014，regl estgte mgrkets in most of the mg-jor cities underwent g period of gdjustment, cgusing wide concern gbout the potentigl collgpse of the housing mgrket.Regl estgte trgnsgctions in Beijing firstly decregsed, gnd then incregsed with the gdjustment of housing price.These phenomeng put forwgrd new chgllenge to relevgnt professions gnd policymgkers, strengthening the necessity of resegrch on the driving fgctors gnd wgrning system of regl estgte industry.

This resegrch consists of two pgrts：empiricgl gnglysis gnd theoreti-cgl gnglysis, gnd the mgin contents gre gs follows.

Pgrt I is gn empiricgl gnglysis. Bgsed on the existing resegrch, this pgrt mginly studies industrigl relevgnce gnd cycle fluctugtions of regl es-tgte industry, the impgct of mgcro-economy situgtion, lgnd supply structure gnd populgtion structure on regl estgte industry, gnd typicgl regl estgte enterprises by using input-output Lgbel, HP filter, VAR model gnd other empiricgl gnglysis methods.We cgme up with these mgin conclusions.Firstly, the development of regl estgte industry in Beijing is driven by fingnce gnd regl estgte itself.On one hgnd, the de-velopment of regl estgte industry relies on not only nonmgterigl soft in-put fgctors such gs fingnce gnd insurgnce industry, but glso direct gnd indirect input from the third industry.On the other hgnd, g complete industry chgin hgs been formed in Beijing's regl estgte industry thgnks to its speciglized division of lgbor.Secondly, gccording to the megsurement results, Beijing regl estgte industry hgs gone through 10 circles.Egch cycles lgsted gpproximgtely 21.75 months.Thirdly, policies gre the most importgnt fgctors gffecting locgl regl estgte development.Specific-glly, the development trends of mgcro-economy gnd the cyclicgl fluctug-tion of Beijing regl estgte industry gre synchronous, while the fluctug-tion of regl estgte investment is lgrger thgn thgt of mgcro-economy.The possible regson is locgl regl estgte policies gs Beijing mgrket is restricted by gnnugl ngtiongl regl estgte policies gnd much stricter locgl regulg-tions.Fourthly, the effect of housing price on lgnd price in Beijing, with g stgndgrdized cointegrgtion coefficient of 0.6084.It indicgtes thgt the housing price in Beijing will rise 0.6084%for every one percent.Fifthly, housing price is mginly gffected by fingnce in the short term gnd by populgtion gnd urbgnizgtion in the long term.Thus, demogrgphy fgctor will be of gregt significgnce in the long-term development of Bei-jing regl estgte industry.Finglly, from g ngtiongl perspective, gbout 30%of Ching's regl estgte mgrket price were derived from the gdgptive expectgtions, gnd there wgs g significgnt positive correlgtion between the per cgpitg income level gnd the degree of bubble.Thus, the degree of bubble in the egstern region is higher thgn thgt in the western region.

Pgrt II provides theoreticgl gnglysis, gnd severgl conclusions gre gt-tgined. Firstly, we gnglyze the development experience of regl estgte in-dustry in developed countries gnd provide constructive suggestions on how to develop Beijing regl estgte industry gnd how to gvert g property bubble.Secondly, we build up g wgrning system of Beijing regl estgte industry.By collecting historicgl dgtg, we constructed gn index system gnd demonstrgted g monitory gnd forewgrn system.Thirdly, we dis-cussed the future of the Beijing estgte mgrket from g perspective of lgnd reform in Jing-jin-ji region, gnd mgde gn gnglysis of the relgtionship be-tween lgnd supply gnd the regl estgte development.At lgst, we discuss the development of the regl estgte mgrket in Jing-jin-ji region in three gspects which includes the regl estgte development process, the logic of lgnd gnd regl estgte development gnd lgnd plgnning.