Preface

On 26 October 2021, the 7th China and Central and Eastern European Countries （CEECs）High Level Think Tanks Symposium “Navigating China-CEEC Cooperation through Turbulent Times of Change and Adaption”, took place, in hybrid format, simultaneously in Beijing, China and in Sofia, Bulgaria. The joint China-Bulgaria organization and holding of the China-CEEC Think Tanks Symposium was the result of a practical think-tank cooperation built on mutual trusts between the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute and Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences during the past seven years.

COVID-19 lockdowns caused suspension of travels, which in turn, led to a standstill in reciprocal exchange visits of think tank delegations, temporarily preventing residential think tank forums to take place. However, thanks to the digital age, China-CEEC institutional, scientific and policy driven exchange continued online with all imbedded peculiarities and limitations of online virtual communication.

The Symposium was held under the list of activities agreed upon in Beijing Agenda, adopted at the China-CEEC Leaders’ Summit in February 2021. Its high think-tank and policy research relevance was substantiated by the fact that it was held under the auspices of the Secretariat for Cooperation between China and CEEC and China Foundation for International Studies and organised by the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China-CEEC Think Tanks Network, the Diplomatic Institute to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Bulgaria （the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute）.

Over the years China-CEEC Think Tanks Symposium’s editions have become an important networking event attracting high profile experts and leaders from China and CEECs, representatives of think tanks, policy researchers, scholars, practitioners from multiple fields of study, work and professional background. The Symposium serves as an academic and policy-driven platform for critical and high-value exchange of multiple perspectives on the current state of play;challenges and future prospects for the development of China’s relations both with the CEEC regional grouping and with individual CEECs （in the context of the China-CEEC Cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative）. In this regard, the 7th Symposium sparked exchange of policy expertise, interdisciplinary knowledge on socio-economic, sustainable development, trade, industrial, health, technology etc. policy issues. The panelists’ presentations and discussions outlined policy approaches for post-pandemic recovery, reviewing China-CEEC Cooperation potential to collaborate in the field of green and digital transformation. In line with the established tradition for China-CEEC think tank forums, the symposium also focused on the topics of inter-connectivity in infrastructure development and the various modalities of local cooperation.

During the symposium keynote Chinese speakers （representing major policy-making and academic Chinese institutions）viewed China-CEEC relationship in narrow and broader strategic contexts. They acknowledged the complexity of the global landscape （incl. fundamental geopolitical shifts in the world）within which the China-CEEC Cooperation platform was being navigated. It is in this context that they called for abandoning zero-sum, bloc-based political mindset, which in their view, has been externally imposed on Europe.

The Chinese policy towards CEEC countries continues to rest on the principles of mutual respect, adopting a rather pragmatic approach towards open and innovative cooperation. Chinese policy experts reaffirmed their country’s support for the European integration. It has been in the strategic interest of China to see the EU stable and prosperous. They reaffirmed Beijing’s position on China-CEEC cooperation as an integral part of China-EU relationship. China-CEEC cooperation played a critical role in advancing China-EU relations. Speakers reiterated that Beijing strived towards developing stable and predictable relations with EU institutions despite current systemic, conceptual, value-based and foreign-policy diverging perspectives on the China-EU strategic discourse. In addition, speakers highlighted that for China-CEEC Cooperation to succeed it should continue to develop as an international win-win cooperation, a natural result of practical multilateralism. Chinese policy experts and high-level scholars emphasized the need for counterbalancing negative tendencies and seizing opportunities, both within China-EU and China-CEEC cooperation formats. This included CEECs utilizing the potential of China’s reform policy and opening up for developing active trade and economic relations with Beijing.

Further into the forum, the Chinese policy-making and academic community defined the China-CEEC Think Tanks Network as an important component of China-CEEC overall people-to-people exchange. The realization of joint research projects under the Think Tanks Network, applied in both theory and practice, should adopt a down-to-earth approach, grounded on the diversity of opinions and perspectives, and genuinely reflecting the on-going regional and global trends and developments. Think tanks cooperation could help formulate common agendas and highlight China-CEEC Cooperation advantages （aligning to the interests of both sides）. According to leading Chinese scholars think tanks, have always sparked and facilitated political and economic dialogues, and provided for wider use of new media and public outreach technologies. They expect think tanks collaboration to fuel new momentum in China-CEEC relations. Last but not least, they envisage China-CEEC think tanks cooperation to exude an image of China as a respectable partner and not a rival to Europe （despite the different historical, civilizational, national and ideological contexts and models of development Europe and China represented）.

On their part, the keynote experts from CEE participating in the forum countries emphasized the importance of the think tanks symposium as a tool for building trust and fostering stronger cooperation between partners. The forum is best suited as a platform for detecting current challenges and trends in shaping strategies for future China-CEEC cooperation. While China experts defined the China-CEEC Cooperation as a multilateral and bilateral cooperation mechanism, CEEC keynote experts viewed it as one of the major Chinese foreign policy initiatives （alongside the Belt and Road Initiative）which impacted both bilateral relations of China with individual CEECs and Beijing relationship with the EU. Despite linguistic and semantic nuances, both sides stressed the great untapped cooperation potential of the China-CEEC Cooperation platform. A decade after its inception, the China-CEEC Cooperation platform could stay relevant if it adapted China CEEC cooperation to political, economic, financial, cultural, academic, technological processes and developments spearheading in the world today. For CEECs, sustainable cooperation could be accomplished through the realization of joint projects in the fields of green energy transition, ICT driven digital economy, tourism to name a few. It was stressed the COVID-19 pandemic required extensive cooperation between pharmaceutical companies from CEEC and China in developing effective vaccines and joint production of medical drugs. Furthermore, experts stated that post-pandemic world economic recovery （incl. restoration of chains of production and supply）ought to remain a priority within China-CEEC consultation mechanism.

In view of CEE policymakers and experts, the practical and sustainable aspects of the China-CEEC Cooperation initiative for CEECs also meant, first and foremost, reciprocal and balanced trade and investment relations. This includes providing broader access opportunities for products and services of CEE companies on the vast and competitive Chinese market. Experts acknowledged that China-CEEC Cooperation has contributed China-CEEC trade volumes to reach a promising $149 billion （for 9 years of cooperation, 2012-2021）with $22 billion bilateral investment. However, negative trade balance of CEEC toward China remains a growing problem. For instance, Bulgaria’s leading role in China-CEEC agricultural cooperation seemingly opens a great niche for its products on Chinese market. However, complex veterinary inspection and other customs import procedures when it comes to agricultural products and foods, limits Bulgarian aggro presence on the Chinese market. Hopefully, an announced commitment for market reciprocity and plans for import of products at China’s highest political level worth $170 billion from the CEECs in the next five years will come through to enhance China-CEEC economic cooperation. Another issue relates to developing strategies for doing mutual business. While China prioritized the implementation of large strategic investment transport and logistics infrastructure, industrial and energy capacity development projects in CEECs （with participation with Chinese state-owned companies and major policy banks）, policy-making and business circles in CEECs wanted trade and investment relationship to run alongside Small and Medium-sized Enterprises （SMEs）. In this respect, private initiatives on both sides are key to success. Symposium participants emphasized that joint China-CEEC business ventures should be initiated from the bottom-up, backed by institutional and political support from local and regional （incl city municipalities）authorities in CEEC and by respective Chinese provincial authorities/governments.

Moreover, the impact of the evolving regional and global strategic environment and perceptions on the future of the China-CEEC relationship was also highlighted in the think-tanks symposium.

Firstly, the China-EU relations started to change. Brussels rebranded strategic partnership with Beijing into systemic rivalry and economic competition. Key EU supranational institutions （European Commission and European Parliament）, incl. major West European countries started accusing China with regard to so called Xinjiang human rights record, Hong Kong and Taiwan questions, lack of transparency as to tackling COVID-19 pandemic. Imposition of political and economic anti-China （incl. personal ones on top regional China officials）was the climax of EU normative pressures. China responded with placing contra-sanctions on EU officials and lawmakers, think tanks and media outlets. The victim of all this was the freezing of the ratification of the long-negotiated China-EU Comprehensive Agreement of Investment （CAI）by the Parliament.

Secondly, Lithuania （a participating country in China-CEEC Cooperation until 2020）exploited the topic of human rights and initiated steps towards the establishment of a quasi-official relationship with the Taiwan authorities met by Beijing’s resolute action. One-China policy is a red line and a core issue for Beijing and the basic principle for developing relations with other countries.

Thirdly, China-CEEC and China-EU relations continue to be influenced by the complexity of China-U. S. relationship dynamic and the Euro-Atlantic strategic narrative （a core number of CEECs have a shared membership of EU and NATO）. Although some improvement in China-U. S. relations has been registered with the appointment of Biden’s administration, the seaming “de-coupling” has not materialized in an apparent “re-coupling” of relations. A deep level of distrust still permeates China-U. S. relations. Brussels and Washington share an identical vision of China as a challenger of Washington consensus （based on the principles and values of liberal democracy, human rights and the rule of law）by offering an alternative model of global governance （promoted via the Belt and Road Initiative, with the principles of community of shared destiny and interest, global connectivity and shared development）.

Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict, was not in the radar of the think tank symposium policy discussions （as it happened four months after the end of the forum）, it is worth sharing a few thoughts on its regional and global impact. Moreover, it may lead to further re-calibration of China-EU and EU-CEEC relations.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already triggered tectonic shifts within the international system. On one hand, the conflict contributed to an unprecedented consolidation of the Euro-Atlantic community. Brussels imposed the widest possible range of political, economic, financial, etc. sanctions aimed at basically isolating Russia and undermining its economic, military, technological potential. Moscow reciprocated with targeted contra-sanctions mainly in the financial and energy sectors. Europe is about to face another major crisis. In addition, NATO has increased its military presence in Central and Eastern Europe. With no EU security and defence mechanism yet in place, NATO, （and in particular U. S. military presence）continues to provide a strategic shield for the EU. The concept of EU’s strategic autonomy is still evolving. The EU policy-making community is divided over how Europe’s strategic autonomy should look like: Should it be a replacement or complement to NATO’s defence capabilities in Europe;Should Europe also evolve as an independent security, geopolitical pole, and to what extent should it still be dependent on the U. S. factor.

China comprehends the strategic autonomy of the EU, in the context of Europe, acquiring a greater sense of independence in its policy choices, future development and relations with major centres of world power. Beijing has recognised Brussels’ role in mediation diplomacy, peace-making, and post-conflict restoration. The EU successfully acts as a civilian and soft security actor. China considers the EU as a major political, trade and economic partner. In 2021 China-EU trade reached €695 billion （as compared to EU-U. S. trade amounting to €631 billion）. This has made China-EU’s largest trading partner.

However, Beijing makes a distinction between EU and NATO. It considers the U. S. led NATO an aggressive, military alliance （as a relic of the Cold War）. Beijing and Moscow shared an identical position that NATO’s eastward expansion has been detrimental to the stability of Europe. It is yet to be seen whether Euro-Atlantic unity in the face of the Russian-Ukraine conflict would further enhance U. S. -EU policy coordination vis-à-vis China. The Chinese political leadership has pursued active mediation diplomacy. Beijing has used UN fora to call for initiation of peace talks.

China does not want China-EU relations to be viewed through the narrow lens of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China clearly wants relations to continue to develop pragmatically, complying with the principle of peaceful co-existence. Bejing looks for shared interests in fields of climate change, trade, digital economy, sustainable development and other aspects of global governance that could stabilize the relationship. Hopefully, the on-going conflict will not damage China-EU relations.

The present collection of academic and analytical papers is generated from the 7th China-CEEC High Level Think Tanks Symposium. The high academic standard of the volume has been achieved by use of interdisciplinary, geopolitical, economic, cultural, theoretical, empirical and statistical methods of research and analysis. The volume offers an in-depth and critical analysis of multiple aspects of the China-CEEC Cooperation initiative, incl. existing and prospective China-CEEC cooperation fields. It encompasses views and perspectives from think tank analysts, policy researchers, field practitioners from China, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia, Romania.

The papers include succinct introductory summaries, comprehensive literature reviews, concluding sections and relevant policy recommendations, each one adding extensive value to the volume. Practical dimension of the volume has been achieved by inclusion of several country-based cases studies related to different facets of China’s relations with several participating CEECs in the China-CEEC Cooperation.

The volume’s key themes can be grouped as follows:

·Contextualized and conceptualized review of China-CEEC Cooperation platform, its emerging institutional and policy framework, forces and contexts that have been shaping it. “Bilateral+Multilateral” theory, a new exploration of the China-CEEC Cooperation. Analysis of the evolving nature of China-CEEC relations and the changing perceptions about China’s influence in CEEC. China-CEEC relations have been placed within the broader picture of the China-EU relations, as well as major power politics. The China-CEEC relations have been viewed from the vantage of point of innovative concepts including that of facilitative leadership. Realistic future scenarios for China-CEEC and China-EU relations have been outlined, as well as opportunities and challenges in the development of relations in priority spheres （namely, ICT driven economic cooperation, technological innovation, greenfield and renewable energy cooperation）. The potential ICT cooperation has been critically reviewed through the work of Slovakia-based China-CEEC virtual technology transfer center.

·China’s foreign policy priorities and the diplomatic tools （namely soft and economic power tools）employed for its realization in the CEEC and broader European context have been thoroughly examined from different angles both by CEEC and Chinese scholars. The synergy between China-CEEC Cooperation and BRI in Europe has been reiterated. The BRI has been reviewed though resilience of supply chains and concept of sustainability.

·China-CEEC trade and investment relations have been evaluated in general and within China’s partnership with individual CEECs （namely, Bulgaria）. The Chinese investment model （realized through takeovers of key industrial and critical infrastructure assets）in the Western Balkans （and in particular in Serbia）has been studied in terms of industrial capacity building, as well as environmental and social impacts on the economies of the countries analyzed. The topic has also been examined and disproved within Western media narratives of portraying the BRI model as ‘toxic’. The need for strategic communications support of Chinese investments in the region has been acknowledged.

·Untapped creative potential of the ‘culture streets’ model of intercultural interaction within the broader framework China-CEEC people-to-people exchange mechanism have been studied.

Dr. Valentin Katrandzhiev

Head of Research Division on China-CEEC Cooperation and BRI

Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute

May 7, 2022