Preface

With the continuous enhancement of international competitiveness and the implementation of the going-global strategy，China has gradually become an emerging source of outward foreign direct investment（OFDI）. Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed，China has accelerated the pace of developing overseas markets，and OFDI has risen sharply. In 2020，China's OFDI flow reached US $ 153.71 billion，ranking first in the world. Implementing the Belt and Road Initiative has also promoted the rapid growth of China's OFDI in infrastructure（OFDII）. This field has become an investment hotspot in recent years.

However，due to constantly changing international political and economic environments，as well as the influence of many unfavorable factors of the host country，enterprises still face many risks in the process of going global. This will greatly affect the scale and size of China's OFDI. As a priority area of OFDI，infrastructure projects have the characteristics of a large amount of capital and long cycle，which determines that they face more risks than general investment projects. Many scholars have conducted relevant studies on the country risk faced by OFDI. However，they have paid more attention to the impact of the host country's political risk on overall OFDI，and the research on economic risk and foreign infrastructure investment is insufficient. Studying the relationship between economic risk and infrastructure investment is of great significance for guiding enterprises to do a good job in risk management，improving investment efficiency and promoting the Belt and Road Initiative.

Based on the cross-border panel data of China and 149 Belt and Road Countries（BRCs），this book uses the difference-in-differences（DID）model，the spatial econometric model and the stochastic frontier model to examine the relationship between economic risk and China's foreign infrastructure investment from the perspective of scale and efficiency. At the same time，I also pay attention to the role of the Belt and Road Initiative in it.

There are 7 Chapters in this book. Chapters 1 to 3 provide a general background for this research. Chapter 1 introduces the background，research purpose，research methods as well as the innovations and limitations of this book. Chapter 2 reviews and summarizes the theoretical and empirical literature relevant to this book，including the theories related to foreign direct investment（FDI），the empirical studies related to investment efficiency and investment risk，and the theoretical basis of this research. Chapter 3 analyzes the evolution and main features of China's OFDI and OFDII，then explores the evolution and main characteristics of Chinese and global economic risks，laying the foundation for subsequent empirical analyses of this research. Chapters 4 to 6 conduct several empirical analyses. Based on the cross-country panel data from 2003 to 2019. Chapter 4 employs the difference-in-differences model to explore the actual promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the scale of China's OFDII，which provides an empirical basis for our subsequent research on the role of the Belt and Road Initiative. The results of this research indicate that，without considering the marginal effect，the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly improve China's OFDII in the host countries. Compared with all host countries，the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's OFDII is more significant in countries along the Belt and Road；the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's OFDII is the process of dynamic adjustment，and the marginal influence continues to increase over time；the promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's OFDII is achieved through the “Five-Pronged Approach”；the result of the heterogeneous analysis shows that the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on different types of infrastructure investment is heterogeneous. Chapter 5 empirically examines the spatial dependence effect of China's OFDII by constructing the spatial econometric models，analyzes the impact of economic risk on the scale of China's OFDII，and the role of the Belt and Road Initiative. The results show that there is a significant spatial dependence effect on China's OFDII；both the host country and China's economic risks are significantly positively correlated with China's foreign infrastructure investment；the effect of economic risk on China's OFDII varies across countries with different income levels and natural resource endowments；the Belt and Road Initiative significantly reduces the impact of economic risk on OFDII. Chapter 6 uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to measure the efficiency of China's OFDII，examines the effects of economic risk and its components on the efficiency of China's OFDII，and explores the role of the Belt and Road Initiative. The results show that foreign infrastructure investment is indeed affected by the non-efficiency factor of investment. And the overall economic risk of the host country is significantly positively correlated with China's OFDII efficiency；inflation risk，budget balance risk and current account risk are significantly and positively correlated with the efficiency of China's OFDII，while the GDP growth risk is significantly and negatively correlated with China's OFDII efficiency；the Belt and Road Initiative weakens the impact of economic risk on the efficiency of China's OFDII；since 2003，the efficiency of China's OFDII has shown a trend of continuous growth，but there is a space for efficiency improvement；China's OFDII efficiency in non-Belt and Road countries is higher than that of other countries along the Belt and Road. Chapter 7 concludes the findings of this book and puts forward some policy implications. This research shows that the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly expand the scale of China's OFDII；economic risks can substantially affect the scale and efficiency of China's OFDII；the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly reduced the positive impact of economic risk on the level and efficiency of China's OFDII；the efficiency of China's OFDI in infrastructure in BRCs is at a relatively low level. The main policy implications include：deepen cooperation with BRCs to create a favorable environment for the internationalization of enterprises；continue to support enterprises to go global，participate in infrastructure co-construction，and gradually strengthen infrastructure connectivity with BRCs；the Chinese government should actively explore judicial coordination and investment protection mechanisms to help enterprises avoid risks；China should focus on optimizing the industry and location layout of foreign investment and improving investment efficiency.