结论
本文运用历史研究方法，考察了半个多世纪以来英国在塞浦路斯军事基地部署的源起、功能演变、动因及挑战。未来，英国在塞浦路斯主权基地的驻军规模将面临调整。截至2008年，英国在塞浦路斯的两处军事基地人口为14500人，包括7000塞浦路斯居民和7500英国军人及其家属，其中军事人员2960人；[71]截至2011年，英国在塞浦路斯岛上的两处主权基地拥有塞浦路斯居民仍为7000人，英军官兵3000人，英军家属3700人左右。[72]2012年开始，英国在塞浦路斯军事基地的驻军人数下降至2880人，主要任务仍然是为驻阿富汗英军的军事行动和英国在中东地区其他军事行动提供支持。受欧盟债务危机的影响，英国国防部计划在四年时间里（2012～2016年）将国防开支减少8%，英国在塞浦路斯的军事基地也将受到这一改革的影响。2011年5月，英国国防大臣利亚姆·福克斯（Liam Fox）在英国议会发表讲话时指出，由于英国经济衰退、国防预算减少，国防部为实现经费使用效益最大化，未来将评估英国在塞浦路斯的两处永久性主权基地，特别是如何更好地使用这两处军事基地，使之成本最小化、价值最大化。[73]
2012年以来，随着叙利亚局势的恶化，英国多次重申不排除单方面或联合其他西方大国采取军事干预行动。有分析认为，美欧等西方国家军事干预叙利亚最直接的办法就是利用英国在塞浦路斯的军事基地对叙利亚巴沙尔政府的军事指挥中心、情报机构和武器储藏库实施空袭。对此，塞浦路斯政府已经多次重申：任何国家不得将塞浦路斯的军事基地用于进攻第三国的侵略行动。[74]纵观历史，塞浦路斯在战略上扼守东地中海，是大国青睐的“永不沉没的航空母舰”；英国在塞浦路斯的亚克罗提利和德凯利亚两个军事基地是英国干预西亚、东非和北非事务的“桥头堡”，短期内无法替代。在可预见的将来，英国与塞浦路斯共和国在军事基地问题上的争端仍将呈常态化趋势，但英国政府绝不会轻易放弃此军事基地。
[1] 本文系国家社科基金青年项目“美国在中东伊斯兰地区军事基地的战略部署与调整趋势研究”（13CGJ042）的前期成果，并受教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”（NCET）和“上海市浦江人才计划”的资助。
[2] 孙德刚，博士，上海外国语大学中东研究所研究员（上海 200083）。
[3] 关于前四个阶段的划分可参见Rosemary Hollis，Britain and the Middle East in the 9/11 Era，London：Wiley-Blackwell，2010，p.6。迄今，学界对英国在中东地区军事基地的历史的研究主要集中在19世纪至20世纪上半叶，主要通过解密英国外交档案加以史学考证，参见James Barr，A Line in the Sand：Britain，France and the Struggle for the Mastery of the Middle East，London：Simon & Schuster，2011；Bill Mallinson，Britain and Cyprus：Key Themes and Documents since World War II，London：Tauris Academic Studies，2010；T.G.Fraser，The USA and the Middle East since World War 2，London：Macmillan，1989。
[4] http：//www.sbaadministration.org/home/admin_background.htm.
[5] 例如，2003年5月9日，在小布什政府提出在十年里与中东国家建立自贸区（MEFTA）的计划中，塞浦路斯被视为20个中东国家中的一员。参见William Evans and Daniel J.Harris，eds.，Politics and Economics of the Middle East，New York：Nova Science Publishers，2008，p.149。国内中东学界也一般将塞浦路斯视为中东的一部分，认为塞浦路斯是中东地区唯一的欧盟成员国，如彭树智先生主编的《中东国家通史》就包含《塞浦路斯卷》。
[6] Lason Athanasiadis，“US Seeks Major Military Base on United Cyprus，” Asia Times，April 10，2004.
[7] 代表性研究成果有：Robert Holland，Britain and the Revolt in Cyprus，1954-1959，Oxford：Oxford University Press，1999；Faustmann，Hubert，& Nicos Peristianis，eds.，Britain in Cyprus：Colonialism and Post-Colonialism 1878-2006，Mannheim/Möhnesee：Bibliopolis，2006；Hubert Faustmann and Emilios Solomou，eds，Independent Cyprus 1960-2010：Selected Readings from The Cyprus Review，Nicosia：Nicosia University Press，2011；张顺洪：《英国殖民撤退过程中的军事条约和协定》，《世界历史》1997年第4期。
[8] Gerald S.Graham，The Politics of Naval Supremacy：Study in British Maritime Ascendancy，Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，1965，p.92.
[9] Monte Palmer，The Politics of the Middle East，Belmont：Thomson Wadsworth，2007，p.315.
[10] 参见Gregory Blaxland，The Regiments Depart，London：Willianm Kimber，1971，pp.12-15；Robert E.Harkavy，Great Power Competition for Overseas Bases：the Geopolitics of Access Diplomacy，New York：Pergamon Press，1982，pp.123-124。
[11] “Rememberance Day：Where They Fell，” BBC News，11 November，2011，http：//www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11743727.
[12] John Woodliffe，The Peacetime Use of Foreign Military Installations under Modern International Law，Dordrecht，Boston and London：Martinus Nijhoff Publications，1992，p.147.
[13] Robert Holland，Britain and the Revolt in Cyprus，1954-1959，Oxford：Oxford University Press，1999，p.332.
[14] “The world Factbook，” https：//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ax.html.
[15] Klearchos Kyriakides，“The Sovereign Base Areas and British Defence Policy Since 1960，” in Faustmann and Peristianis，eds.，Britain in Cyprus：Colonialism and Post-Colonialism 1878-2006，Mannheim/Möhnesee：Bibliopolis，2006，p.512.
[16] “Akrotiri Sovereign Base Area，” http：//www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/uk-bot-akrotiri.htm
[17] “End of Era at Air Base，” Daily Telegraph，September 24，1977.
[18] 参见Gregory Blaxland，The Regiments Depart，London：Willianm Kimber，1971，p.293；Robert E.Harkavy，Great Power Competition for Overseas Bases：the Geopolitics of Access Diplomacy，New York：Pergamon Press，1982，p.126。
[19] Annex to Watch Committee Report No.318，September 5，1956，FRUS，1955-1957，Vol.XVI，Suez Crisis July 26-December 31，1956.
[20] T.G.Fraser，The Middle East，1914-1979，New York：St.Martin’s Press，1980，p.92.
[21] Stefanos Stefanou，Secretary of the Cyprus Peace Council，“Foreign Military Bases in Cyprus，” http：//militarybases.twoday.net/stories/763647/.
[22] John Woodliffe，The Peacetime Use of Foreign Military Installations under Modern International Law，Dordrecht，Boston and London：Martinus Nijhoff Publications，1992，pp.156-157.
[23] H.E.Earle，“Britain and Middle East Defence，” Australian Outlook，Vol.9，No.4，2008，p.247.
[24] John Woodliffe，The Peacetime Use of Foreign Military Installations under Modern International Law，Dordrecht，Boston and London：Martinus Nijhoff Publications，1992，p.150.
[25] 参见Gregory Blaxland，The Regiments Depart，London：Willianm Kimber，1971，p.349；Robert E.Harkavy，Great Power Competition for Overseas Bases：the Geopolitics of Access Diplomacy，New York：Pergamon Press，1982，p.126。
[26] Panagiotis Dimitrakis，Military Intelligence in Cyprus：From the Great War to Middle East Crisis，London and New York：I.B.Tauris，2009，p.105.
[27] Giorgos Georgiou，“British Bases in Cyprus and Signals Intelligence，” http：//cryptone.org/2012/01/0060.pdf.
[28] “Akrotiri Sovereign Base Area，” http：//www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/uk-bot-akrotiri.html；“Cyprus British Forces on Cyprus，” http：//www.photius.com/countries/cyprus/national_security/cyprus_national_security_british_forces_on_cy～1483.html.
[29] 2011年以来，英国保守党人士阿什克罗夫特勋爵（Lord Michael Ashcroft）被任命为英国政府在塞浦路斯军事基地的助理。参见Helen Warrell，“Ashcroft to Advise on Military Bases in Cyprus，” Politics & Policy，May 25，2011。
[30] Foreign and Commenwealth Office，“The Memorandum，” http：//www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmfaff/147/147we34.htm.
[31] Richard Tyler，“Cyprus：Riots Outside British Military Base，” July 7，2001，http：//www.wsws.org/articles/2001/jul2001/cyp-j07.shtml.
[32] CIA，“World Factbook，” https：//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/dx.html.
[33] “British Forces Cyprus，” http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Forces_Cyprus.
[34] “Cyprus 1954-2008，” http：//www.nam.ac.uk/exhibitions/online-exhibitions/cyprus-1954-2008；“The British Army in Cyprus，” http：//www.army.mod.uk/operations-deployments/22728.aspx.
[35] Rosemary Hollis，Britain and the Middle East in the 9/11 Era，London：Wiley-Blackwell，2010，pp.102-103.
[36] Zdzislaw Lachowski，“Foreign Military Bases in Eurasia，” SIPRI Policy，Paper，No.18，June 2007，p.30.
[37] Kent E.Calder，Embattled Garrisons：Comparative Base Politics and American Globalism，Princeton：Princeton University Press，2007，p.11.
[38] 参见Sir Humphrey，“On Strategy-East of East of Suez，The UK military presence in the Asia Pacific Region （Part Two），” July 2，2012，http：//www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2012/07/on-strategy-east-of-east-of-suez-the-uk-military-presence-in-the-asia-pacific-region-part-two/。
[39] Rick Rozoff，“U.S.to Dominate All Europe，Mediterranean through NATO，” Global Research，March 5，2011.
[40] Adrian Croft，“Britain Launches Review of Cyprus Military Bases，” Rreuters，May 24，2011.
[41] Ministry of Defence，Overseas Territories：The Ministry of Defence’s Contribution，London：Ministry of Defence，2011，p.8.
[42] Ministry of Defence，Overseas Territories：The Ministry of Defence’s Contribution，London：Ministry of Defence，2011，p.8.
[43] “EU Ministers Explore Fresh Help to Syria Opposition，” Khaleej Times，September 8，2012.
[44] Mark Mazzetti，Michael R.Gordon，and Mark Landler，“U.S.Is Said to Plan to Send Weapons to Syrian Rebels，” New York Times，June 13，2013，A1.
[45] British Government，A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty：The National Security Strategy，London：National Archive，2010，p.27.
[46] Ministry of Defence，Overseas Territories：The Ministry of Defence’s Contribution，London：Ministry of Defence，2011，p.3.
[47] British Government，A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty：The National Security Strategy，London：National Archive，2010，p.14.
[48] Janne Haaland Matlary，European Union Security Dynamics in the New National Interest，New York：Palgrave Macmillan，2009，pp.18-20.
[49] Lee Willett，“British Defence and Security Policy：The Maritime Contribution，” Royal United Serves Institute for Defence and Security Studies，2008，pp.1-2.
[50] Lee Willett，“British Defence and Security Policy：The Maritime Contribution，” Royal United Serves Institute for Defence and Security Studies，2008，pp.1-2.
[51] “British Armed Forces，” http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Armed_Forces.
[52] Paolo Enrico Coletta and K.Jack Bauer，United States Navy and Marine Corps Bases，Overseas，Westport：Greenwood Press，1985，viii.
[53] Kent E.Calder，Embattled Garrisons：Comparative Base Politics and American Globalism，Princeton：Princeton University Press，2007，p.187.
[54] Foreign and Commenwealth Office，“The Memorandum，” http：//www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmfaff/147/147we34.htm.
[55] William Mallinson，Cyprus：A Modern History，London and New York：I.B.Tauris，2009，p.146.
[56] “Akrotiri and Dhekelia” http：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akrotiri_and_Dhekelia.
[57] “Akrotiri and haDhekelia，” http：//www.mlahanas.de/Cyprus/Geo/AkrotiriAndDhekelia.html.
[58] Richard Tyler，“Cyprus：Riots Outside British Military Base，” July 7，2001，http：//www.wsws.org/articles/2001/jul2001/cyp-j07.shtml.
[59] Jennie Matthew，and Jamie Wilson，“British Base on Cyprus Rocked by Riots，” The Guardian，5 July，2001.
[60] Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights of Cyprus，Situation of the inhabitants of the Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia，April 4，2007.
[61] Yiorghos Leventis，“The Syrian Unrest and Broader Repercussions，” International Security Forum，25 April，2012，p.3.
[62] James Ker-Lindsay，“A Difficult Transition to a New Relationship：Britain and Cyprus in the European Union，” Journal of Contemporary European Studies，Vol.15，No.2，2007，p.194，p.196.
[63] James Ker-Lindsay，“A Difficult Transition to a New Relationship：Britain and Cyprus in the European Union，” Journal of Contemporary European Studies，Vol.15，No.2，2007，p.194，p.196.
[64] “MEP Arrested at UK Base in Cyprus，” BBC News，12 April，2007.http：//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6550619.stm.
[65] “Cyprus Elects Its First Communist President，” The Guardian，25 February，2008.
[66] Carol Ament，“Cyprus Wants British Bases Shut Down as MPs Pass Resolution，” Famagusta Gazette，March 23，2012.
[67] Stefanos Stefanou，Secretary of the Cyprus Peace Council，“Foreign Military Bases in Cyprus，” http：//militarybases.twoday.net/stories/763647/.
[68] “Demonstration against British military bases，” North Cyprus Daily，January 3，2012.
[69] Carol Ament，“Cyprus Wants British Bases Shut Down as MPs Pass Resolution，” Famagusta Gazette，March 23，2012.Yiorghos Leventis，“The Syrian Unrest and Broader Repercussions，” International Security Forum，25 April，2012，p.3.
[70] Carol Ament，“Cyprus Wants British Bases Shut Down as MPs Pass Resolution，” Famagusta Gazette，March 23，2012.Yiorghos Leventis，“The Syrian Unrest and Broader Repercussions，” International Security Forum，25 April，2012，p.3.
[71] 参见Defence Analytical Services Agency，Tri-Service Publications，No.6，London：Defence Analytical Services Agency，July 31，2007；James Rogers and Luis Simon，“The Status and Location of the Military Installations of the Member States of the European Union and Their Potential Role for the European Security and Defence Policy，” Policy Department External Policies，February 2009，p.13。
[72] British Forces Cyprus Pre-arrivals Guide，April 2011，London：Military of Defence，2011，p.6.
[73] Adrian Croft，“Britain Launches Review of Cyprus Military Bases，” Rreuters，May 24，2011.
[74] Yiorghos Leventis，“The Syrian Unrest and Broader Repercussions，” International Security Forum，25 April，2012，p.3.