Test Your Judgment
Here is a quiz to test your judgment as a project manager. This is not an IQ test, and it is definitely not some sort of psychological experiment to stress-test your brain. This is a test of your intuition; you do not need to do any calculations.
Consider this exercise an introduction to the book. We will discuss the problems from the test along with other issues throughout the book.
1. You are a project manager working on a movie called Pirates of the Caribbean-24. Your project is to produce and deliver a prop for the set: a treasure chest. You estimate that manufacturing the chest in China and filling it with gold will take between 10 days (you have 10% confidence in this estimate) and 40 days (90% confidence) using normal distribution. Delivery time should be the same in all cases. The director has requested that you come up with an estimate with 90% confidence for both manufacturing and shipping the treasure chest. Which of the following is your estimate?
A. ~80 days B. ~50 days C. ~63 days.
2. You are an artist drawing a wedding portrait of Katie Holmes and Tom Cruise. You have two strategies:
(1) Draw both of them at the same time. This strategy will take 20 days. However, if at any time during the 20 days, Katie and Tom decide that they do not like the portrait, you have to start all over. The probability of them not liking your work is 60%.
(2) Draw Katie first and then Tom. This strategy will take 10 days for each of them. If at any time during these 10 days Katie or Tom decides that they do not like their portraits, you will need to restart your 10 days of work. The probability of either of them not liking your work is 30%.
Which strategy should you use to complete the portrait faster (on average, taking into account potential delays)?
A. Both strategies will lead to the same duration.
B. Strategy B is 17% faster than strategy A.
C. Strategy B is 70% faster than strategy A.
3. Assume that you selected strategy 2 from the previous question. There could be two scenarios: (a) Katie’s and Tom’s art preferences are similar, so if Katie doesn’t like the portrait, Tom probably won’t like it either; or (b) Katie’s and Tom’s preferences are different. What is the project duration (on average, taking into account potential delays)?
A. Situation A leads to a 50% faster completion of the portrait than situation B.
B. Situation B leads to a 50% faster completion than situation A.
C. Portrait completion times in situation A and B are about the same.
4. You are the organizer of a Rolling Stones concert in your town, and you need to replace many amplifiers in the stadium where the concert will take place. You know, based on independent testing, that only 1% of all the amplifiers are defective, but you decide to test them anyway. The test is 80% accurate; therefore, in 20% of the cases the amplifiers could pass the test but stop working during the concerts. Your test indicates that a particular amplifier is defective. What is the probability that the other amplifiers will be defective?
A. 80% B. 40% C. 4%
5. You are in Anchorage, Alaska, to film the new National Lampoon’s Vacation in Hawaii movie starring Chevy Chase. If snow starts falling while filming a beach scene, you will have to restart 10 days of shooting. The chance of snowfall is 30%, and the official weather forecast says that there is an equal probability of snowfall for each of the 10 days. However, you think that it is most likely to snow close to the end of filming rather than at the beginning. Assuming that both forecasts are equally accurate, which situation will result in the longest time to complete filming, taking into account potential delays?
A. Your forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than the official weather forecast.
B. The official forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than your forecast.
C. Filming will take about the same time regardless of the forecast.
6. You are involved in a project to promote rapper MC Uglyface. Despite spending $1 million for ads, video clips, and marketing promotions, MC Uglyface is still at the bottom of the charts. What option would you choose?
A. One more $50,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were successful in 50% of the cases.
B. One more $100,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were successful in 75% of the cases.
C. Give up on MC Uglyface and start promoting the rapper BadPosture.
7. You met a young actress who you believe can be an A-list actress and celebrity in a few years, so you offer to be her divorce lawyer. What is the chance that you will earn millions in attorney fees from her if there is a 10% chance that she will become a celebrity, a 100% chance that she will be married, a 100% chance that she will be divorced, and a 10% chance that she will choose you to be her divorce lawyer?
A. 10% B. 1% C. 0.1% D. 100%
8. You are a screenplay writer trying to figure out what type of screenplay will have the best chance of being produced. As part of this decision, you have reviewed historical data related to all the screenplays you know and have put them in the table below. What type of screenplay will have highest probability of not being produced?
9. Your project is to buy new clothes for the fall season. You read a number of fashion magazines and see that most experts agree that a mixture of bright and pale tones will be in style during the fall. A few magazines also stress the revival of a historical theme. In addition, some articles emphasize a trend to pink and blue colors. Which description do you think will be the most probable?
A. Bright hues mixed with pale tones.
B. Bright hues mixed with pale tones, combined with purity of pink and blue colors.
C. Bright hues mixed with pale tones, combined with purity of pink and blue colors that bring a sense of energy and refinement to historical and classic themes.
10. You are a stunt double in a western movie. Despite all your skills, you fall from your horse in 16% of all the shots. The occurrence of these falls appears to be completely random; it does not seem to have any correlation to how hard you try, what horse you use, the weather conditions, the filming locale, or anything else. In this movie, you have already fallen from your horse 7 times out of 35 shots. Are you going to be lucky the next time around? How many times do you estimate you will fall from the horse in the remaining 25 shots?
A. 5 times B. 2 times C. 4 times