第2章 Price Inflation物价上涨
物价上涨问题首先是全球性的，全球经济处于平稳发展状况，相关指标当然稳步上升，包括物价；其次是全国性的，中国经济处于全球经济范畴，而且二十多年的平稳快速增长，物价每年都有波动及上扬。目前来讲，这种物价上涨还是正常的，而国家及政府也在不断地进行调控以求经济能持续稳步发展下去。导致物价上涨的三个原因为：国际市场粮食、石油等价格的带动；生产成本的带动；供求结构的失衡。
What is price inflation
什么是物价上涨
China's creeping CPI inflation will continue to be a major concern in the market in the first half of 2011.
The headline CPI is expected to remain stubbornly high at 4.5 percent year-on-year （YoY） in the first half of this year, primarily due to the carryover effect （base effect） accounting for two-thirds of the recent CPI hike, with the remaining third due to a new price driving force, ie, actual price increases-items which are gaining momentum on a month-on-month （MoM） basis.
The CPI is expected to trend downward in 2011, however, posting a 4.5 percent reading in the first half and a 3.6 percent reading in the second half. Excluding the impact of the carryover effect, the new price driving force will remain strong.
An examination and analysis of the country's CPI movements over the past four years has led to the following summarization:
Recent CPI inflation has been mainly a function of rising food prices. By setting the comparable base at 100 for December, 2006, the nation's CPI increased by 14.9 percent over the past four years （4.5 percent YoY in December, 2010 according to CCBI's forecast）. This was largely driven by a 40.8 percent hike in food CPI over the same period. Non-food CPI has remained fairly stable, rising only by 3.2 percent over the past four years.
Food price inflation has been driven by both increasing demand and falling production. CCBI's analysis reveals that food price inflation has been positively correlated with average disposable income growth and industrial output growth but negatively correlated with grain production.
Given the physical constraint on land resources and planting, the country's food price inflation is expected to become a permanent fixture of the economic landscape.
PPI （producer price index） hikes have largely outstripped non-food CPI hikes in the past four years. Again, using the comparable base of 100 for December 2006, the analysis finds that the country's PPI has increased by a total of 14.3 percent （versus non-food CPI increasing by 3.2 percent） in the past four years, implying that: productivity improvements have partly digested cost inflation in many manufacturing sectors; some manufacturing sectors have little ability to pass cost inflation on to consumers; service prices have remained quite stable.
Monetary policy will target long-term price stability over short-term movements in CPI. The analysis indicates the nation's policymakers have begun to factor core CPI （non-food and deducting energy prices） movements into their inflation assessments. The policymakers will likely adopt more administrative price controls while improving agricultural productivity in an effort to curb food price inflation.
物价指数（Price Index）亦称商品价格指数（commodity price index，简称CPI）是反映各个时期商品价格水准变动情况的指数。物价指数是一个与某一特定日期一定组合的商品或劳务有关的价格计量。当该商品或劳务的价格发生了变化，其价格指数也随之变化。编制物价指数的目的，是为国家分析物价变动（price change）对国民经济（national economy）与人民生活的影响，从而制定有关物价宏观调控政策（macro-control policy），为加强物价管理提供依据。同时，也为企业做出相应的经济决策提供依据。
物价指数计算的基本方法，是以计算期（calculation period）各种商品的价格（commodity price）乘以计算期各种商品的销售量（quantity of sale），再除以基期（base period）各种商品的价格乘以基期各种商品的销售量。
Key words & Sentences
关键词句全知道
The rise in prices was a signal for rebellion.
物价上涨引起了叛乱。
The scarcity of food forced prices up.
食物短缺促使物价上涨。
Thousands demonstrated against the price increases.
数以千计的人举行示威，抗议物价上涨。
They made prediction about possible price increase.
他们对物价上涨的可能性进行预测。
Price increase hit everyone's pocket.
物价上涨冲击了每个人的钱袋。
Rising pork prices could push up China's inflation rate.
猪肉价格的上涨会推动中国通胀率的上升。
The 10% price rise is well with the limits set by the government.
10%的物价上涨远未超过政府限定的范围。
The 50% rise in the average nationwide price in 2006 is causing squeals of alarm.
2006年，全国平均物价上涨50%，引起了恐慌。
In emerging economies, above all, bad inflationary surprises have become the norm.
特别是在新兴经济体，出乎意料的恶性通货膨胀如今已成为一种常态。
The current price hikes and increasing inflationary pressures are the biggest concern of the people.
当前物价上涨和通货膨胀的压力是老百姓最关心的问题。
The elimination of inflation would ensure that the amount of money used in repaying a loan would have the same value as the amount of money borrowed.
消除通货膨胀应确保还贷的钱与所贷款的价值相等。
The central bank raised interest rates yesterday for the fourth time this year to control money supply and rising prices.
昨天，央行年内第四次上调利率以控制货币供给量和物价上涨。
The close correlation of commodity price index, monetary supply, bank deposit and interest rate leads the trend of interest rates.
物价指数、货币供应量、金融机构存款的变化情况与货币市场利率具有较强的关联性，并引导货币市场利率的走势。
Like the disco era it dominated, stagflation has a distinctive beat: slow growth, rising inflation, high oil prices and weak labor markets.
就像迪斯科流行的年代一样，经济“滞涨”也有突出的特点：经济缓慢增长，通货膨胀加剧，油价走高以及就业市场低迷。
The 1970s stagflation resulted, in large part, from extended periods of loose monetary policy pursued to accommodate the demand-crippling effect of oil shocks by printing money.
20世纪70年代的滞涨很大程度上是为顾及因石油冲击而受到严重损害的需求效应，采取的印钞措施和长期宽松的货币政策而造成的。
Let's Talk！
开始交流吧！
Rachael: Good morning, Monica.
瑞秋：早上好，莫妮卡。
Monica: Good morning.
莫妮卡：早上好。
Rachael: Did you go shopping?
瑞秋：你去商场买东西啦？
Monica: Yes. Compared with last week, the price increases again.
莫妮卡：是啊，和上个星期比，物价又上涨了。
Rachael: It is said that the central bank escalated the deposit-reserve ratio.
瑞秋：听说央行又上调存款准备金率了。
Monica: Yes. That means the bank will increase the interest rate in no time.
莫妮卡：是啊，这就意味着银行的利率要上调了。
Rachael: The central bank had increased the interest rate for four times this year.
瑞秋：今年央行已经四次提高利率了。
Monica: But it is still possible to increase again.
莫妮卡：但是也不能排除再次调利率的可能性。
Rachael: The price increase and inflation are always big problems that persecute the government.
瑞秋：物价上涨，通货膨胀一直以来都是困扰政府的大难题。
Monica: The authorities may fear the high inflation, driven mainly by rising food prices, may lead to more general price spikes and spill over to other sectors.
莫妮卡：政府担心粮食价格上涨引起的通货膨胀会导致更普遍的食品价格上涨，甚至延伸至其他部分。
Rachael: Well, what is the reason for the price increase?
瑞秋：那么是什么原因导致了物价上涨呢？
Monica: There are three main reasons. One is the lack of energy sources and poor harvest, which lead to the price increase of oil and crops. Second, owing to the price increase of oil and crops, the salary of workers in related field underwent a raise, which cause the higher cost. Besides, it is unbalance between supply and demand.
莫妮卡：主要有三个原因：第一，是能源的短缺和粮食的歉收，导致了石油、粮食等产品的价格上升。第二，由于粮食等产品价格上涨，工人的工资就要相应增加，也导致了相关产品生产成本的上升。再有，就是供求的不平衡。
Rachael: These factors are closely related with financial crisis, don't they?
瑞秋：这些因素在很大程度上与金融危机有关吧？
Monica: Yes.
莫妮卡：是的。
Rachael: I hope the government's contractionary fiscal policy can effectively stabilize the price.
瑞秋：希望政府的紧缩性货币政策能够有效地稳定物价。
Monica: The so-called price stabilization is just restricting the inflation rate with a certain limit.
莫妮卡：所谓的稳定物价也不过是将通货膨胀率控制在一定范围之内。
Rachael: It is better than not.
瑞秋：终归比放任物价上涨强。