第4章 Overcrowded City人满为患的城市

大力发展中小城镇，曾是中国政府在城市化道路上选择的主要方向。但是近年来，随着经济的发展、社会的进步，我国的城镇化速度明显加快，大量的移民并没有流向预想中的中小城镇，而是大多涌向了那些经济发达的大城市。现在每年大约有1.2亿左右的人口从农村流动到各大城市。这给一些大城市带来了日趋严峻的生态环境危机和经济社会矛盾。其中，发展得越快的特大城市，如北京、上海、天津、重庆、深圳等，潜伏的危机也越大。在城镇化速度加快的同时，以城市现有的生态环境和自然资源，到底能否承受如此多的人口，应该如何控制城市的人口总量以保证城市舒适的居住环境，已经成为了人们普遍关注的热点问题。

Overcrowded city

人满为患的城市

Over half the world's people now live in cities. The “Global Report on Human Settlements” says the historic change had taken place. The report came out from U.N. Habitat, a United Nations agency.

A century ago, less than five percent of all people lived in cities. By the middle of this century it could be seventy percent, or almost six and a half billion people. Already three-fourths of people in developed countries live in cities. Now most urban population growths exist in the developing world.

Urbanization can lead to social and economic progress, but also pressure on cities to provide housing and services. The new report says almost two hundred thousand people move into cities and towns each day. It says worsening inequalities, driven by social divisions and differences in wealth, could lead to violence unless cities plan better.

In China, more attention is being given to population issues. According to the authorities, in the next five years, China's urban population is going to overtake the rural population for the first time. What does this mean for the country and its development?

The National Population and Family Planning Commission said recently, the urban population in the country will pass 700 million in the near future, which will take up 50% of the total population. The population structure is going to experience a dramatic change, and social and economic development will also be affected.

“It is very meaningful to China because we used to be an agricultural country for such a long time. When the country's urban population takes up more than 50% of the total population, we can say our country is an urbanized country. I think it's going to be a milestone in China's history.”

Meanwhile, experts also say our society has to get ready for the coming changes.

“We should pay attention to the quality of urbanization. There are a lot of topics around the next generation of rural people. These young people were born in the cities; barely have connection with the rural areas. But it's hard for them to become a real part of the city. So the issue of the living condition of this flowing population is very important too. It is closely connected to the quality of urbanization. ”

Facing the population change, we have to be more concerned about many issues, including how to relieve the population pressure in big cities, and how to improve the development of small cities.

Another issue is urban sprawl. This is where cities expand into rural areas, sometimes at a much faster rate than urban population growth.

Sprawl is common in the United States. Americans move a lot. In a recent study, Art Hall at the University of Kansas found that people are moving away from the major cities to smaller cities. He sees a trend toward “de-urbanization” across America.

But urban economies still provide possibilities that rural areas do not. Sabina Deitrick at the University of Pittsburgh, in Pennsylvania, is an expert on cities. She notes that urbanization brings social change that can empower women.

SABINA DEITRICK: “Women entering the labor force is one big change and that always goes up with urbanization and certainly will proceed in many, many countries where urbanization is increasing rapidly.”

Sabina Deitrick has closely studied Pittsburgh from the loss of its main industry, steel, to its rebirth as a smaller city with different industries. She says the reuse of existing land and spaces and the reinvention of urban life is important if cities are to succeed.

Professor Deitrick notes that a city's ability to educate and train its people is important to jobs and new industries. Even new industries based on old ideas.

Around the world, people leave rural farm jobs to go to the city. Yet now there is growing demand for farm products grown close to the cities where they are used. Urban farming is taking hold in some of the world's biggest cities. Sabina Deitrick says studies show that urban farming is one area where woman can earn more than men do.

所谓人口压力指数（population pressure index），是指一个区域现有人口数量（current population）与经济人口容量（economic population capacity）之比。当人口压力指数小于1时，人口容量相对富裕（relatively rich），说明该地区相对人口压力不大，还有一定的人口扩容余地（room for expansion）；当人口压力指数大于1时，则人口容量超负荷（population capacity overload）。人口压力指数与人口经济密度密切相关。如果以全国平均水平为1来计算，东部地区人口压力指数平均为0.65 （the average population pressure index），表明东部地区有人口扩容的能力。事实也表明，中、西部地区的人口向东部地区的流动迁移（mobility and migration）是主流；中部地区的人口压力指数为1.14，除了吉林、黑龙江两个省的人口压力指数低于1外，其他中部地区省份的人口容量都超负荷。如果人口过多的迁入，对经济发展、生态只会造成负影响。西部地区人口压力指数更大，除内蒙古外，其余地区人口容量已满负荷。

Key words & Sentences

关键词句全知道

city size 城市规模

mega-cities 百万人口的大城市

uncontrolled urbanization 城市化失控

urban population growth 城市人口增长

This city has a population of more than 1, 000, 000.

这个城市人口超过一百万。

Within 30 years there will be twice as many urban people as countryside people in the world.

未来30年内，全世界的城市居民将是农村人口的两倍。

The town is fast increasing in population.

这座城市的人口增长很快。

The government needed to seek solutions for swelling urban populations and shrinking resources.

政府必须找到可行的办法来解决城市人口不断增加和资源不断减少的问题。

Currently, three densely urbanized regions have formed along China's coast, the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

目前，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和京津唐地区已经成为我国三大城市密集区。

The population of this city is above a hundred thousand.

该城市人口已超过10万。

According to the research from McKinsey, by 2025, the report predicts that China will have 221 cities with more than a million inhabitants.

麦肯锡咨询公司的研究报告预测，截至2025年，中国将有221个人口超百万的城市。

Every year, about 13 million rural people flood into China's cities, equivalent to the current population of Beijing.

我国每年约有1300万的农村人口涌向城市，这个数字相当于现在整个北京市的人口。

Urbanization is speeding up throughout China, with half the 1.3 billion Chinese expected to live in cities in 2020.

随着我国城市化进程的加快，预计到2020年，全国将有一半人口居住在城镇。

The scale and pace of urbanization in China would continue at an unprecedented rate.

中国的城市化规模和进程仍将以前所未有的速度持续下去。

New urban systems are also taking shape in the country's smaller cities and towns, due to economic development and the absorption of surplus rural labor.

随着我国城镇经济的发展和吸纳农村剩余劳动力能力的增强，一些中小城镇已经开始形成新的城镇体系。

China's mega-cities are swelling at an alarming rate; they cannot accommodate the numbers of people and the increasing strain on resources.

中国的超大城市规模的膨胀速度相当惊人，随之而来的就是城市功能的不堪重负和对于各种资源消耗的增加。

Most citizens will prefer to live in a smaller city than a mega size one with millions of people; but they all want to have access to the same opportunities and services in the mega-cities.

许多市民都更喜欢住在一个小型的城市，而不是住在那种挤了百万人口的大城市，但是他们仍然希望得到那些在大城市可以获得的相同的机会和服务。

More and more official and property developers are turning to the concept of eco-towns as populations' expansion and calls for sustainability in new construction grow louder.

随着人口增长以及新建筑的可持续性呼声的高涨，官员和房地产开发商越来越趋向于采用生态城的理念。

Let's Talk！

开始交流吧！

Mary: Katherine, How about your holiday? Did you go anywhere?

玛丽：凯瑟琳，假期过得怎么样啊？去哪里玩了？

Katherine: I visited the museum.

凯瑟琳：去了博物馆。

Mary: Was there any interesting prohibition?

玛丽：有什么有意思的展览吗？

Katherine: There were so many people that I could see nothing.

凯瑟琳：人太多了，什么都没有看到。

Mary: Yeah, there are crowd of people everywhere in the city.

玛丽：是啊，在城市里无论去什么地方都会有很多人。

Katherine: According to the prediction of authority, the total population of world cities will reach 9 billion till year 2075.

凯瑟琳：据权威部门预测，到2075年，世界城市人口将达到90亿。

Mary: Really? That's horrible!

玛丽：是吗？那简直太可怕了！

Katherine: Well, will you plan to find job and live here after graduation?

凯瑟琳：毕业后你也会留在这里工作和生活吗？

Mary: I suppose I will. There are more opportunities in big cities, and the life here will be more colorful.

玛丽：我想会的，大城市会有更多的机会，生活也更加丰富多彩。

Katherine: There are indeed many temptations and advantages in big cities, but the continuously increasing of population in urban cities will lead to plenty of inconvenience for our lives, the transport is included. More and more people in urban city own their private cars, which causes the everyday traffic jam. Most time are wasted on the way.

凯瑟琳：大城市确实有很多的诱惑和优势，但是城市人口的不断增加会给我们的生活带来很多不便，出行就是其中之一。城市里拥有私家车的人越来越多，交通拥堵天天发生，很多时间都将浪费在路上。

Mary: Our government should further improve the public transport facilities in order to release the traffic pressure.

玛丽：政府应该进一步完善公共交通设施从而缓解交通压力。

Katherine: The public transport is also inconvenient, with tens of thousands of people crowd in the subway in peak time every day.

凯瑟琳：公共交通也不方便，每天高峰时期都有成千上万人挤地铁。

Mary: That's the truth.

玛丽：的确如此。

Katherine: It is also uneasy to find an ideal job in urban city.

凯瑟琳：生活在城市里找个理想的工作也不容易。

Mary: One of my friends hasn't found a satisfied job since graduation two years ago.

玛丽：我的一个朋友已经毕业两年了还没有找到满意的工作。

Katherine: In addition, owing to the expansion of urban population, the requirement for house increases constantly, which lead to the price increase. Even house renting has become a big burden.

凯瑟琳：另外，近些年来，由于城市人口不断膨胀，对于住房的需求也不断增加，导致了房价不断上升，即使租房也变成了一种不小的负担。

Mary: Is that mean you will not stay here after graduation?

玛丽：那么你决定不留在这里了？

Katherine: Maybe. Compared with the colorful urban city, I prefer the cozy life.

凯瑟琳：或许吧，相对于五彩缤纷的城市，我更倾向于安逸的生活。