·Challenges and Opportunities Faced by the B&R Initiative·
The Belt and Road Initiative: Challenges, Cooperation and Action
The B&R Initiative: New Route to Promoting the Version 2.0 of Globalization
At present, the “anti-globalization” has seemed to be a prevailing trend. There are quite a few factors that lead to this consequence, such as the long-term slumps of the global economy, continuous regional conflicts, and disastrous aftermath of terrorism. All the above factors have led to a sharp drop of the enthusiasm on global issues by the developed countries. At this background, the birth of the B&R Initiative is definitely a positive response to the “anti-globalization”. Hereby, the experts at the conference agree that:
First, the B&R Initiative is a grand strategy for China to expand its opening-up policy, to establishing a new pattern of open development, to forge the version 2.0 of globalization, and to put the win-win cooperation concept into practice.
The American scholars believe that it is China that has brought the new changes in world geopolitics and geo-economics; and that China is becoming a very important power in globalization, which would bring revolutionary influence on global affairs.
The Indian scholars believe that the B&R Initiative is a framework of geo-culture instead of geopolitics and the Silk Road Economic Belt could be regarded as the second globalization initiated by the oriental world. At present, the Silk Road Economic Belt covers 63% of the world population, which represents 29% of the global GDP. The GDP ratio could be increased to 50% if the concepts of made-in-India, Indian necklace along Himalaya, and India coastal necklace are connected to the B&R Initiative and if the Eurasian Economic Union initiative could be docked with the B&R Initiative.
The Chinese scholars proposed to put the B&R Initiative in the background of the transforming global role. The multiple power structure of the B&R Initiative should be strengthened to produce an everlasting power that is classified phase by phase. From the perspective of the free trade zone, some Chinese scholars believe that the pilot free trade zone is a version 2.0 of opening-up policy that is initiated by China at current international situation. It is a grand strategy of synchronized integration at home and abroad. It represents the participation of China in formulating the new rules for the international trade.
Second, the B&R Initiative has achieved significant accomplishments for the last three years in different aspects, such as its top design, policy communication, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bond. A cooperation environment of discussion, work, and share among different countries is cultivated.
The Russian scholars believe that the B&R Initiative is in line with the regional and global trend of development. The B&R Initiative is not weakening or eliminating the current economy system. Instead, it represents the desire for peace, mutual benefit and exchange of the international community. It helps promote free trade and fair cooperation, which is in the interest of all the countries. The realization of the docking should be encouraged between the B&R Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union which has been advocated by Russia.
The Indian scholars believe that China is promoting the B&R Initiative through the pattern of geo-economics. The geopolitics and the geo-economics should be related in the future. In other words, India should dock its own development strategy with the B&R Initiative.
The Philippine scholars believe that the B&R Initiative of China is an international strategy. All the participating countries can relate it with their own national development projects. The Philippines is also very willing to actively participate in the construction of the B&R Initiative advocated by China.
The Chinese scholars also put forward that the B&R Initiative is actually a major adjustment of China's opening-up policy and a readjustment of China's layout of its geo-economics. The B&R Initiative is mainly of developing westward and opening to the developing countries.
Third, the B&R Initiative is transforming from a “China initiative” into a global action in the past three years. For the three years, the B&R Initiative has complied with the inherent international law of economy development, adapted actively to the new trend of global economic cooperation, reached broad international consensus, and won the world's attention in the process of revitalizing the global economy. Therefore, it has been recognized as the “China prescription” for the current international economic and financial epidemic and the “China approach” to solving the present problem.
The Egyptian scholars look forward to more personnel exchanges with China and other countries. The ascension of political stability in Egypt would allow the country to play an important role in China's B&R Initiative by connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa.
Sri Lanka actively supports the construction of the B&R Initiative, because the initiative is in line with the development vision of the country. Relying on its own geographic advantage in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka could become a key hub on the Maritime Silk Road.
The Kazakhstan scholars believe that the B&R Initiative can strengthen trade and economic cooperation between Kazakhstan and other countries to improve regional integration.
The Indonesian scholars believe that the development strategy and vision of their country is a close fit to the B&R Initiative.
Laos fully supports the B&R Initiative, and aims at breaking away from the poverty caused by being a landlocked nation and obtain economic development.
Japanese scholars believe that the railway brings positive impacts to all the relevant countries, including Russia.
By all means, the Malaysian scholars do not want to see the B&R Initiative as a game for interests between the big powers. Instead, it will bring us a new world if healthy free trade can promote peace of the world.
Challenges Facing the B&R Initiative: the General and Specific Risks
The participating experts at the conference generally believe that the B&R Initiative is transforming from the stage of conceptual explanation and publicity toward that of practical directions. In general, the major existing and potential risks and challenges are as follows:
a. Security risks. There are three main categories: competition of power strategy hedges against the B&R Initiative; regional conflicts; terrorism and other non-traditional security threats.
b. Political risks. There are also three main categories of political instability:color revolution; regime change; and secession.
c. Economic risks. The B&R Initiative gives priority to economic projects. As an economic initiative, the B&R Initiative contains financing risks, credit risks for execution of contracts, profit return risks, and technical risks in the infrastructure construction.
d. Ecological risks. The area that the B&R Initiative covers is basically ecologically fragile regions. The infrastructure construction would bring certain threats to local ecological system.
e. Social risks. Ethnic and tribal contradictions, religious, sectarian and cultural conflicts, international crimes, drugs, epidemic diseases, etc. can turn to deadlock against the progress of the B&R Initiative.
Besides the general types of challenges, the B&R Initiative also faces specific problems in different countries.
The Indian scholars discussed the reason why there were no enthusiastic responses from them during the discussion. Firstly, the B&R Initiative was just brought up; and India was watching the actions and effects of the B&R Initiative. Secondly, India is taking some regions of the area as its own backyard. Thirdly, there are traditional and non-traditional security risks. Fourthly, India is concerned that the B&R Initiative may affect the stability of its northeastern area. Fifthly, India is worried that China might form encirclement around India through the Maritime Silk Road. Besides, the China-India trade deficit also caused concern of India.
The Pakistani scholars refuted the suspicions from the Indian scholars about the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a cooperative practice between China and Pakistan. Pakistan does not need approval from India on whether it can carry out cooperation with any other countries.
The Burmese scholars believe that the B&R Initiative is a kind of game-changing initiative, after comparing it with the World Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB), and the Bretton Woods System. The Chinese scholars believe that the B&R Initiative is improving and complementing the rules of the world trade system, instead of changing the rules.
The Sri Lankan scholars brought up the problem of the loan standard for the B&R Initiative. This would affect the operation of capital, which would further affect the all over progress of the B&R Initiative.
The Afghan scholars put forward that the B&R construction should avoid the four mistakes that happened in the construction of Afghanistan with the U.S. involvement. Firstly, it should not leave Afghanistan highly dependent on foreign aid. Instead, economic development should rely on investment. Secondly, fight against terrorist militarism. Thirdly, rely on regional participants. Fourthly, work on regional consensus, and improve sustainable development.
The scholars from the Central Asian countries believe that the countries in Central Asia should fully understand that China is a very important partner for economic cooperation in the region. The leaders of China and Russia should participate in the regional construction in a constructive way. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) did not fully fulfill its mission. With the annual budget of $ 4 billion, the result is not very obvious; therefore, China and Russia should carry out new cooperation under the frame of the B&R Initiative. The transparency issue should be given more attention. The infrastructure projects should not be taken as means for personal gains.
As a third party, the Korean scholars put forward that China should pay attention to the concerns of the countries on its periphery. For example, countries that have conflicts with China on the South China Sea worry that the construction of the Maritime Silk Road might collide with their territorial sovereignty and interests.
People-to-People Bond Is Equally Important as Infrastructure Construction
The seminar highly stressed the importance of people-to-people bond, and regarded it as equally important as the construction of the infrastructure. In the past, foreign experts paid more attention to the construction of the “hardware”aspects of the B&R Initiative, the infrastructure. Today, people regard the software of the B&R Initiative as a key area, many experts expressed that the people-to-people bond is critical to the B&R.
Firstly, people-to-people bond is particularly important to the B&R Initiative. Experts generally believe that people-to-people bond is an important component of the B&R Initiative. Chinese scholars believe that mutual understanding in culture can positively affect economic cooperation. The lack of a profound and mutual understanding in the social culture and tradition of each other can most likely lead to failure of cooperation.
The Russian scholars believe that soft power is a right to exert influence, the implementation of a common value shared by all communities in the society, and certain political and diplomatic strategies. The implementation of soft power strategy is to break these national, social, cultural biases to support cultural progress to promote dialogue and exchange between different cultures.
The Malaysian scholars believe that people-to-people bond includes mutual recognition and a harmonious friendly relationship between the peoples.
The Pakistani scholars put forward that the personnel exchange and people-to-people bond are the key to the success of the B&R Initiative.
Secondly, certain problems in the field of people-to-people bond should not be ignored.
The Malaysian scholars believe that the major problem for the Southeast Asia in their study on China lies in the language. The Chinese research papers that most researchers from Southeast Asia need for reference are published in Chinese language, while the researches on China by western scholars are more easily accessible. The Western scholars obtain lots of influence, while Chinese scholars might have academic exchanges with their counterparts in Southeast Asia more on personal basis. In reverse, for the study on Southeast Asia, China is in lack of experts who are familiar with the local languages of Southeast Asia. The research on the Southeast Asia is still an interdisciplinary subject in China. Nevertheless, there are also problems for the Southeast Asian countries in their study of China.
The Indian scholars believe that there is a mutual trust deficit between China and India, mainly due to inadequate understanding of each other's culture and civilization.
The Chinese scholars stressed the importance of the people-to-people bond. Compared to its knowledge of the Christian civilization and the western world, China is lagging behind in its understanding of the Islamic world, the maritime civilization, and the underdeveloped regions in Eurasia.
Thirdly, the construction of people-to-people bond should be strengthened in the future. The Kyrgyz scholars proposed that as the economic development strategy should be widely recognized, it must have popular support. The communication between the people of China and Kyrgyzstan needs to be enhanced.
For the construction of the people-to-people bond in the future, the Chinese scholars proposed that the academia should further explore the research in the docking of the civilizations and cultures of the countries along the B&R.
The Expectations and Suggestions on the Future Construction of the B&R by the Scholars from Different Countries
The B&R is a grand initiative with global, long term, and profound influence. The experts at the symposium produced valuable opinions and suggestions on the future construction of the B&R from various perspectives, which manifested a anticipation for the fruitful results that would be brought by the B&R Initiative. Specifically, there are the following aspects.
Comprehensive Suggestions
Firstly, the discussion of the B&R Initiative should be continued and strengthened. Communication and discussion will be helpful for the multilateral implementation of the B&R Initiative.
Secondly, a road map and detailed plan of the B&R Initiative should be laid out, so that the localities in countries along the B&R could participate in the construction of it.
Thirdly, market orientation should be focused on, and the market operation should be emphasized. The Chinese scholars suggested that the government is playing a larger role at present in the construction of the B&R. While in the future, it should be transformed toward the enterprises.
Fourthly, the premise to the success of the B&R Initiative should be emphasized. The scholars from Korea suggested that the financial market as well as the technical assistance should be further open to win over support from the international organizations.
Fifthly, the key areas of the B&R construction should be highlighted. Internationally, the transportation across Europe and Asia should, first of all, be thoroughly achieved by high-speed rail. Domestically, the emphasis should be directed to the connection of the best route through the land and the sea.
Sixthly, the B&R Initiative should achieve the integration between inside and outside of the country. A coordinated development should be implemented between the B&R Initiative and the Yangtze River economic belt strategy; the docking should also be strengthened between the B&R Initiative and the regional economic cooperation mechanisms including the Eurasian Union, the SCO, the ASEAN, and the GCC.
Seventhly, bring the U.S. into the B&R Initiative. The US dollar is the major currency of the world, the AIIB is operating over the US dollars rather than the RMB, and the U.S. should belong to the B&R Initiative.
Specific Countries and Regions
Cooperation between China and India
The Chinese scholars suggested that the China-India cooperation should focus on the following areas:
Firstly, establish production capacity cooperation mechanisms.
Secondly, actively promote the establishment of a free trade area, accelerate the construction of connectivity, and improve the investment environment.
Thirdly, confirm the priority areas of cooperation.
Fourthly, enhance cooperation in the financial sector. Make full use of the BRICS bank, the AIIB, and the Silk Road Fund to promote production capacity cooperation.
Fifthly, improve the level of mutual trust. Both China and India should not set up protective barriers against each other, prevent to raise investment behavior up to political security behavior.
The Indian scholars suggested that China and India should establish a coordinated mechanism. The B&R Initiative should not be the counterpart version of the Marshall Plan.
Cooperation between China and the Arabian Countries / the Middle East
The Chinese experts put forward several suggestions: actively promote the communication of policies between China and the Arabian countries. Implement country specific policies. Vigorously promote the project of people-to-people bond.
Some experts proposed for a number of areas for cooperation: expand cooperation in the field of oil and gas to create an energy security community;carry out diversified financial cooperation to boost the internationalization process for the RMB.
The Specific Areas
Firstly, the planning for the infrastructure inter-connectivity should consider how to speed up the development of the periphery regions.
Secondly, build a new economic corridor. The Nepali scholars believe that currently, there is a lack of connectivity between China, the ASEAN and South Asia. The ERIA is a circular economic corridor to improve the common prosperity of China and India. Whether China will consider participating in it remains uncertain.
Thirdly, intensify the cooperation in the manufacturing industry of the international production capacity equipment and achieve multilateral benefits. In this respect, attention should be paid to the following aspects: clarify the role that we play; provide production capacity of premium quality and; avoid pollution of the environment, and build a green silk road together.
Fourthly, intensify the understanding of the labor market in the countries along the B&R Initiative.
Fifthly, enhance educational cooperation. Some countries put a new premium on the role of education to the construction of the B&R. Currently Cambodia has established a number of education cooperation agencies relevant to China.
Sixthly, let the border regions play their roles. Many residents of different ethnicity in the border areas are living across national borders. They can play a role of bridge in the foreign economic exchange activities of China.
The Specific Measures
Firstly, control various kinds of risks for the B&R Initiative. The Chinese experts put forward that a benign mechanism of mutual benefit and mutual governance;set up mechanism of international financial and capital cooperation; integrate the B&R Initiative into the development planning of the UN, of the local organization, and of the host country; build risk database and make risk predictions.
Secondly, emphasize the flexibility of the cooperation. The economic development level of some countries along the B&R Initiative is not very high, so it is not suitable for them to promote trade liberalization. China should strengthen the study on the flexibility of cooperation.
Thirdly, establish and intensify the institutionalization of docking. The construction process of the B&R Initiative should be from the docking of projects to the docking of systems. The failure rate of China's overseas investment is high, close to 90%, while the failure rate of the overseas mergers and acquisitions investment by Japan, the U.S., and France is only about 30%. The main reason is that the Chinese companies work more on project docking without establishing a set of rules of bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation.
Fourthly, intensify the docking of the security systems. The political situation of many countries along the B&R is unstable. The security for the Chinese enterprises there cannot depend entirely on the security companies in these countries. The Chinese security companies should go operating abroad.
Fifthly, build schools in the peripheral countries to improve the quality of the labor force; meanwhile cultivate friendly feelings to China in the younger generation.
Sixthly, make plans for the construction of the communication platform for the B&R Initiative through strengthening the cooperation between media agencies, setting up certain subjects for publicity, and make good publicity work abroad for the B&R Initiative.
Seventhly, intensify research, such as focusing on the economic benefit by studying from the perspective of the comprehensive benefits that are produced by the B&R Initiative. The B&R Initiative is an economic initiative advocated by China, but it will definitely bring a series of political, social, and security benefits.
Eighthly, the issue of the discourse power in the construction of the B&R Initiative. How to handle the leadership for public opinions together with the countries along the B&R and build the discourse power together is a subject for research and discussion in the course of the B&R construction.
Ninthly, the Burmese scholars proposed that China should strengthen the cooperation with the World Bank, the AIIB, and the IMF, and learn from their project experience.
Tenthly, increase consensus in the course of the project landing to intensify the solid sense of gain by the people at the periphery regions.
Eleventh, achieve good translation work for the classics. Translate the Chinese literature into Southeast Asian languages, and encourage Chinese students to do research in Southeast Asia.
“Seven Suggestions”: Put into Practice the Communication of Ideas
Either for connectivity, or for discussion together, construction together, and share together, the most essential is the communication of ideas, in which the think tanks play a vital role.
As an important component of the people-to-people bond, the communication and cooperation between think tanks play a very important role in guiding the national policy and improving the public consciousness. The NIGS should make differences in the construction of the B&R in the future. Hereby, Mr. Wang Linggui, Executive Vice Chairman of Board of Directors & Secretary of the NIGS under CASS, put forward the seven following suggestions:
Firstly, work together to pick up a number of research topics about the B&R Initiative. The B&R Initiative is a big subject, from which every expert from every think tank can select topics from his or her own field of research, and could also provide significant guide to the construction of the B&R and response to the concerns of the various countries in the world.
Secondly, carry out joint research on certain major issues. Every think tank has its own specialty and field of research. The joint research can produce positive contribution to the construction of the B&R.
Thirdly, establish an information system of sharing the results. An information sharing system should be set up as a common foundation and stair of the research. Fourthly, train talents together. Personnel exchange among the participating think tanks is suggested.
Fifthly, host conferences together. Conference is the place where ideas are brought together. The conference is also the place to put people-to-people bond into practice. Participating the conference together is helpful to better communication and reaching consensus.
Sixthly, publish joint phasic or thematic reports. The think tanks can periodically publish joint reports of researches on subjects which would produce positive impact on the society and on the decision making of the country.
Seventhly, set up a common contact mechanism. Each think tank may designate its daily contact personnel and set up its daily contact regulations.
To the above “seven suggestions”, the participating experts have made positive responses. Some of them offered to welcome Chinese scholars to station at and study in their institutes, in order to improve the interaction between the Chinese and overseas institutions and to promote the local recognition of the B&R Initiative; some of them proposed to create an essay collection out of the proceedings of this symposium as a result sharing mechanism; some of them suggested to strengthen translation; and some others suggested to set up websites and databases for the conference.